Serving Boone, Blowing Rock, Banner Elk, and other towns of the North Carolina High Country | Founded 05-05-05

January 18, 2007 issue

Ray vs. The Woolly Worm—First Report Winter 2006-2007

Four Weeks of Winter Have Passed

Story by Sam Calhoun

Nothing says winter like a weather forecast battle between a doctor and a worm.

And that’s exactly what we have here in the High Country. Ever since 2000, High Country weatherman, Dr. Ray Russell—known best from his popular website www.raysweather.com—has gone head to head with the winning worm from the annual Woolly Worm Festival in Banner Elk to see who has the more precise forecast.

This year it’s no different—just a different worm.

In a hard-fought race during the Woolly Worm Festival in October 2006, Jerry Garcia, a woolly worm owned by Katie Berry of Boone, won the 29th running of the worms and the honor of predicting the weather. 

But why would a trained weather forecaster put his science-backed data to the test against a worm? Well, that worm is correct 87 percent of the time. With thirteen bands of fur on each woolly worm’s back corresponding to the thirteen weeks of winter, that worm has a much easier time predicting the winter weather forecast than Russell and all his scientific predictions and accountability concerns.

So, because four weeks of winter have already gone by, let the battle begin!

For week 1 of winter, which is December 21 to 28, Russell predicted cold and snowy and Jerry Garcia predicted cold and snowy. According to Russell, week 1 was “mild with a little bit of light snow,” and he declared a tie between himself and the woolly worm.

For week 2 of winter, which is December 28 to January 4, Russell predicted normal temperatures with light snow and Jerry Garcia predicted cold with light snow. According to Russell, week 2 was “mild with no snow,” thus he declared himself the winner.

For week 3 of winter, which is January 4 to 11, Russell predicted mild with no snow and Jerry Garcia predicted cold and snowy. According to Russell, week 3 was “mild with light snow,” thus he gave the week to the woolly worm and added, “[Jerry Garcia]’s going to need all he can get.”

For week 4 of winter, which is January 11 to 18, Russell predicted cold and snowy and Jerry Garcia predicted cold and snowy. According to Russell, week 4 was “mild with very light snow and a cold ending to the week,” thus he declared a tie between himself and the woolly worm.

So, after four weeks of winter with nine weeks to go, the winter weather showdown stands at two ties and one win apiece for Russell and Jerry Garcia. It’s a dead heat folks.

“The next seven weeks is where I’m going to rack it up against the woolly worm,” said Russell, who added that the next four to six weeks will be colder than normal with a constant heavy threat of snow until the end of February.

For snow lovers, Russell explained that one piece of the puzzle is missing for heavy precipitation. That piece, according to Russell, is what is called “blocking” in the North Atlantic Ocean. A blocking pattern in the North Atlantic forces the cold air out of Canada and pushes the storm track further south, resulting in large snow events for the High Country. Russell expects this blocking pattern to occur in the next four to six weeks, making snow lovers in the High Country very happy.  

With flawed predictions on both sides last year, Russell still inched out a victory getting a majority of the weeks’ weather correct and upsetting Niko—last year’s winning worm. Over winter 2005-2006, Russell correctly forecast six weeks, Niko correctly forecast one week, and the dynamic duo tied for a total of six weeks.

Keep reading the High Country Press for updates on the winter weather showdown throughout the entire season.

For more information, click to www.raysweather.com or www.woollyworm.com.

Sidebar

Dr. Ray Russell’s Fearless Forecast—Winter 2006-07

Week 1 (12/21/06 – 12/28/06) Cold and Snowy

Week 2 (12/28/06 – 1/4/07) Normal Temperatures; Light Snow

Week 3 (1/4/07 – 1/11/07) Mild, No Snow

Week 4 (1/11/07 – 1/18/07) Cold and Snowy

Week 5 (1/18/07 – 1/25/07) Normal Temperatures; Light Snow

Week 6 (1/25/07 – 2/1/07) Cold and Snowy

Week 7 (2/1/07 – 2/8/07) Mild, No Snow

Week 8 (2/8/07 – 2/15/07) Cold and Snowy

Week 9 (2/15/07 – 2/22/07) Cold and Snowy

Week 10 (2/22/07 – 3/1/07) Normal Temperatures; Light Snow

Week 11 (3/1/07 – 3/8/07) Cold and Snowy

Week 12 (3/8/07 – 3/15/07) Cold and Snowy

Week 13 (3/15/07 – 3/22/07) Mild, No Snow

 

The Woolly Worm Forecast—Winter 2006-07

Week 1 (12/21/06 – 12/28/06) Cold and Snowy

Week 2 (12/28/06 – 1/4/07) Cold and Light Snow

Week 3 (1/4/07 – 1/11/07) Cold and Snowy

Week 4 (1/11/07 – 1/18/07) Cold and Snowy

Week 5 (1/18/07 – 1/25/07) Seasonably Cool, No Snow

Week 6 (1/25/07 – 2/1/07) Seasonably Cool, No Snow

Week 7 (2/1/07 – 2/8/07) Seasonably Cool, No Snow

Week 8 (2/8/07 – 2/15/07) Seasonably Cool, No Snow

Week 9 (2/15/07 – 2/22/07) Seasonably Cool, No Snow

Week 10 (2/22/07 – 3/1/07) Seasonably Cool, No Snow

Week 11 (3/1/07 – 3/8/07) Seasonably Cool, No Snow

Week 12 (3/8/07 – 3/15/07) Cold and Light Snow

Week 13 (3/15/07 – 3/22/07) Cold and Light Snow

 

How Much Will It Snow?

In addition to battling the woolly worm in the Winter Weather Showdown, Russell takes the predictions a step further and estimates the expected snowfall for this winter. For winter 2006-2007, Russell expects 120 percent to 130 percent of normal snow. That would be 50 to 55 inches of snow in Boone, 54 to 59 inches of snow in Banner Elk, 34 to 38 inches of snow in Jefferson and 100 to 108 inches on Beech Mountain.