Serving Boone, Blowing Rock, Banner Elk, and other towns of the North Carolina High Country
Founded 05-05-05

February 15, 2007 issue

The Winter Weather Showdown Continues: Ray vs. The Woolly Worm Enters Week 8

Story by Sam Calhoun

Around this time of year, some people might look toward the groundhog for their weather predictions for the rest of winter, but it’s a different story up here in the High Country—we have a worm named Jerry Garcia and a doctor named Ray Russell for that purpose.

The Winter Weather Showdown between Russell and the worm that wins the running of the worms at the annual Woolly Worm Festival in Banner Elk is catching on as a High Country tradition. Perhaps it’s the interest in seeing if the colored bands of fur on the Woolly Worm’s back can correctly predict the winter (they are correct 87 percent of the time) or perhaps it’s the interest in seeing if Russell and his expertise and computer models can outdo nature’s furry omens, but whatever the case, it’s the High Country community’s way of making dreary weather fun.

The last time the High Country Press checked up on the Winter Weather Showdown, Russell and Jerry Garcia had tied twice and had won one week apiece. Now it’s time to evaluate the second four weeks of winter.

For week 5, from January 18 to 25, Russell predicted that the High Country would have normal temperatures with light snow and the woolly worm predicted seasonably cool temperatures with no snow. According to Russell, the area experienced colder-than-normal temperatures that week with light snow, so he named himself the winner.

For week 6, from January 25 to February 1, Russell predicted cold and snow for the High Country and the woolly worm predicted seasonably cool temperatures with no snow. According to Russell, the area experienced colder-than-normal temperatures that week with light snow, so he once again named himself the winner.

For week 7, from February 1 to 8, Russell predicted mild temperatures for the region with no snow and the woolly worm predicted seasonably cool temperatures with no snow. According to Russell, week 7 was colder-than-normal with light snow, so he called the week a tie.

For week 8, from February 8 to 15, Russell predicted cold and snowy conditions and the woolly worm predicted seasonably cool temperatures with no snow. According to Russell, colder-than-normal temperatures and light snow characterized week 8, so he named himself the winner.

After 8 weeks of winter with 5 to go, the Winter Weather Showdown sits at 4 wins for Russell, one win for the woolly worm and three ties. 

For snow lovers who haven’t seen snow recently, Russell explained that one piece of the puzzle is currently missing for heavy precipitation. That piece, according to Russell, is what is called “blocking” in the North Atlantic Ocean. A blocking pattern in the North Atlantic forces the cold air out of Canada and pushes the storm track further south, resulting in large snow events for the High Country. Russell expects this blocking pattern to occur within the next four to six weeks, so snow lovers should soon be very happy.  

Last year, Russell inched out a victory over Niko, last year’s winning worm. In the winter of 2005-2006, Russell correctly forecast six weeks, Niko correctly forecast one week and the dynamic duo tied for a total of six weeks.

Keep reading the High Country Press for updates on the winter weather showdown throughout the entire season.

For more information, click to www.raysweather.com or www.woollyworm.com.

 

Dr. Ray Russell’s Fearless Forecast—Winter 2006-07

  • Week 1 (12/21/06 – 12/28/06) Cold and Snowy
  • Week 2 (12/28/06 – 1/4/07) Normal Temperatures; Light Snow
  • Week 3 (1/4/07 – 1/11/07) Mild, No Snow
  • Week 4 (1/11/07 – 1/18/07) Cold and Snowy
  • Week 5 (1/18/07 – 1/25/07) Normal Temperatures; Light Snow
  • Week 6 (1/25/07 – 2/1/07) Cold and Snowy
  • Week 7 (2/1/07 – 2/8/07) Mild, No Snow
  • Week 8 (2/8/07 – 2/15/07) Cold and Snowy
  • Week 9 (2/15/07 – 2/22/07) Cold and Snowy
  • Week 10 (2/22/07 – 3/1/07) Normal Temperatures; Light Snow
  • Week 11 (3/1/07 – 3/8/07) Cold and Snowy
  • Week 12 (3/8/07 – 3/15/07) Cold and Snowy
  • Week 13 (3/15/07 – 3/22/07) Mild, No Snow

The Woolly Worm Forecast—Winter 2006-07

  • Week 1 (12/21/06 – 12/28/06) Cold and Snowy
  • Week 2 (12/28/06 – 1/4/07) Cold and Light Snow
  • Week 3 (1/4/07 – 1/11/07) Cold and Snowy
  • Week 4 (1/11/07 – 1/18/07) Cold and Snowy
  • Week 5 (1/18/07 – 1/25/07) Seasonably Cool, No Snow
  • Week 6 (1/25/07 – 2/1/07) Seasonably Cool, No Snow
  • Week 7 (2/1/07 – 2/8/07) Seasonably Cool, No Snow
  • Week 8 (2/8/07 – 2/15/07) Seasonably Cool, No Snow
  • Week 9 (2/15/07 – 2/22/07) Seasonably Cool, No Snow
  • Week 10 (2/22/07 – 3/1/07) Seasonably Cool, No Snow
  • Week 11 (3/1/07 – 3/8/07) Seasonably Cool, No Snow
  • Week 12 (3/8/07 – 3/15/07) Cold and Light Snow
  • Week 13 (3/15/07 – 3/22/07) Cold and Light Snow

 

Ray’s Snow Predictions vs. Total Accumulations

In addition to battling the woolly worm in the Winter Weather Showdown, Russell takes the predictions a step further and estimates the expected snowfall for this winter. For winter 2006-2007, Russell expects 120 percent to 130 percent of normal snow. That would be 50 to 55 inches of snow in Boone, 54 to 59 inches of snow in Banner Elk, 34 to 38 inches of snow in Jefferson and 100 to 108 inches on Beech Mountain. 

As of February 12, the total snow and ice accumulation in Boone is 8.5 inches from 10 snow and ice events. As of February 12, the total snow and ice accumulation in Beech Mountain is 28.3 inches from 14 snow and ice events.