Serving Boone, Blowing Rock, Banner Elk, and other towns of the North Carolina High Country | Founded 05-05-05

March 22, 2007 issue


Who Was Right?

Winter Weather Showdown Between Dr. Ray Russell and the Woolly Worm Concludes

Story by Sam Calhoun

The High Country is now in the first week of spring and that means milder temperatures and the time has come to report the final results for the 2006-07 Winter Weather Showdown. Dr. Ray Russell of RaysWeather.com and Jerry Garcia, the fastest woolly worm this side of the Mississippi, worked diligently more than four months ago to compile their respective predictions for the upcoming winter and now it’s time to see who can brag about their premonitions all summer long.   

The Winter Weather Showdown between Russell and the worm that wins the running of the worms at the annual Woolly Worm Festival in Banner Elk is catching on as a High Country tradition. Perhaps it’s the interest in seeing if the colored bands of fur on the woolly worm’s back can correctly predict the winter (they are correct 87 percent of the time) or perhaps it’s the interest in seeing if Russell and his expertise and computer models can outdo nature’s furry omens, but whatever the case, it’s the High Country community’s way of making winter weather fun.

The last time the High Country Press checked up on the Winter Weather Showdown, Russell and Jerry Garcia had tied three times, Russell had won four times and the woolly worm had won once. Now it’s time to evaluate the last five weeks of winter.

For week 9 (2/15/07 to 2/22/07) of winter, Russell predicted cold and snowy conditions and the woolly worm predicted seasonably cool temperatures with no snow. According to Russell, normal temperatures and light snow characterized week 9, so he is claiming victory.

For week 10 (2/22/07 to 3/1/07) of winter, Russell predicted normal temperatures with light snow and the woolly worm predicted seasonably cool temperatures with no snow. According to Russell, mild temperatures with no snow characterized week 10, so he is giving the win to the woolly worm.

For week 11 (3/1/07 to 3/8/07) of winter, Russell predicted cold temperatures with snowy conditions and the woolly worm predicted seasonably cool temperatures with no snow. According to Russell, normal temperatures with light snow characterized week 11, so he is calling himself the winner.

For week 12 (3/8/07 to 3/15/07) of winter, Russell predicted cold temperatures with snowy conditions and the woolly worm predicted cold temperatures with light snow. According to Russell, mild temperatures with no snow characterized week 12, so he is calling the bout a tie.

For week 13 (3/15/07 to 3/22/07) of winter—the final week of winter—Russell predicted mild temperatures with no snow and the woolly worm predicted cold temperatures with light snow. According to Russell, normal temperatures and light snow characterized the week, so he is giving the victory to the woolly worm.

At the conclusion of the 2006-07 winter season and the 2006-07 Winter Weather Showdown, Russell has the lion’s share of victories with six, the woolly worm has half that number with three wins and the duo tied four times. That means that the 2006-07 Winter Weather Showdown title goes to Russell. Congrats! You beat the worm!   

For more information, click to www.raysweather.com or www.woollyworm.com.

 

Dr. Ray Russell’s Fearless Forecast—Winter 2006-07

Week 1 (12/21/06 – 12/28/06) Cold and Snowy

Week 2 (12/28/06 – 1/4/07) Normal Temperatures; Light Snow

Week 3 (1/4/07 – 1/11/07) Mild, No Snow

Week 4 (1/11/07 – 1/18/07) Cold and Snowy

Week 5 (1/18/07 – 1/25/07) Normal Temperatures; Light Snow

Week 6 (1/25/07 – 2/1/07) Cold and Snowy

Week 7 (2/1/07 – 2/8/07) Mild, No Snow

Week 8 (2/8/07 – 2/15/07) Cold and Snowy

Week 9 (2/15/07 – 2/22/07) Cold and Snowy

Week 10 (2/22/07 – 3/1/07) Normal Temperatures; Light Snow

Week 11 (3/1/07 – 3/8/07) Cold and Snowy

Week 12 (3/8/07 – 3/15/07) Cold and Snowy

Week 13 (3/15/07 – 3/22/07) Mild, No Snow

The Woolly Worm Forecast—Winter 2006-07

Week 1 (12/21/06 – 12/28/06) Cold and Snowy

Week 2 (12/28/06 – 1/4/07) Cold and Light Snow

Week 3 (1/4/07 – 1/11/07) Cold and Snowy

Week 4 (1/11/07 – 1/18/07) Cold and Snowy

Week 5 (1/18/07 – 1/25/07) Seasonably Cool, No Snow

Week 6 (1/25/07 – 2/1/07) Seasonably Cool, No Snow

Week 7 (2/1/07 – 2/8/07) Seasonably Cool, No Snow

Week 8 (2/8/07 – 2/15/07) Seasonably Cool, No Snow

Week 9 (2/15/07 – 2/22/07) Seasonably Cool, No Snow

Week 10 (2/22/07 – 3/1/07) Seasonably Cool, No Snow

Week 11 (3/1/07 – 3/8/07) Seasonably Cool, No Snow

Week 12 (3/8/07 – 3/15/07) Cold and Light Snow

Week 13 (3/15/07 – 3/22/07) Cold and Light Snow

 

Ray’s Snow Predictions vs. Total Accumulations

In addition to battling the woolly worm in the Winter Weather Showdown, Russell takes the predictions a step further and estimates the expected snowfall for the winter. For winter 2006-2007, Russell expected 120 percent to 130 percent of normal snow. That would be 50 to 55 inches of snow in Boone, 54 to 59 inches of snow in Banner Elk, 34 to 38 inches of snow in Jefferson and 100 to 108 inches on Beech Mountain. 

As of March 22, 13 inches of snow have fallen in Boone and 37.5 inches of snow have fallen on Beech Mountain.