Serving Boone, Blowing Rock, Banner Elk, and other towns of the North Carolina High Country | Founded 05-05-05

Winter 2006-2007 Wrap-Up

Story by Dr. Ray Russell

The official winter season is over even though—as anyone who has lived in the High Country for a few years knows well—periods of cold and even snow are possible here through April and even into the first week of May. Here are the highlights—or “lowlights” for snow lovers—from winter 2006-2007.

First, virtually all long-range forecasts for this winter were a complete bust. What happened? Back in October when long-range forecasts were released, globally we were in a weak El Niño pattern, meaning that ocean surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific were slightly above normal. Weak El Niño winters tend to be the snowiest for Western North Carolina—the warm Pacific waters provide energy for storms tracking across the southern third of the United States, but it’s not typically so warm as to overpower cold air from the northwest. Well, El Niño did not last through the winter; instead, we went quickly to neutral conditions and by the end of winter we were headed toward a weak La Niña—cooler waters in the Equatorial Pacific. A busted ENSO, or El Niño-Southern Oscillation, forecast led to busted winter forecasts.

So, what did happen this winter in the High Country? Winter was clearly divided into three distinct periods this year.

1—December 1 through January 15. Temperatures averaged 2 degrees above normal during this period. If it were not for three significant but fleeting cold snaps during the period (December 3-5, December 15-19, and January 9-11), the average temperature for the period would have been significantly higher. Beech Mountain had 16 inches of snow, and Boone saw a measly 4.8 inches of snow.

2—January 16 through February 19. Temperatures during this time period averaged 5.6 degrees below normal. That is one of the longest cold periods in several years. During this time, low temperatures on Beech Mountain were in the single digits or below 0 on 18 days! The most amazing aspect of this winter is that we were this cold for six weeks and never cashed in on a big snow event. Only 8 inches of snow fell in Boone during this 6-week period and only 19 inches fell on Beech Mountain. Dry, arctic air dominated, and no significant southern stream storm was ever able to phase into a significant winter storm.

3—February 19 through March 20. Temperatures to finish out the winter averaged 3.3 degrees above normal. During the period, we had two very quick cold snaps (March 4 and March 17-18). Snow? A “piddlin” 0.5 inches in Boone and 4 inches on Beech Mountain.

Overall for this winter, temperatures averaged 0.1 degrees below normal. I heard someone on the radio in a neighboring town say last week that this was the warmest winter he could remember. Clearly, this was NOT a warm winter overall; it was almost exactly normal temperature-wise. What was remarkable about this winter was the lack of precipitation. Only 13 inches of snow fell in Boone, and 37 inches fell on Beech Mountain. Keep in mind, we could add to these totals in the next five weeks. Normal snow totals are around 36 inches for Boone and about 85 inches on Beech Mountain. This is the second least snowfall on record in the High Country—the distinction of least snow ever in the High Country goes to the winter of 2001-2002. However, unlike 2001-2002, we did have significant cold weather this winter. The key to the “snow drought” this year was lack of moisture, not the lack of cold weather. During the winter season, Boone recorded only 9 inches of rain, including melted snow; that’s 5 inches below normal. This water shortage could set us up for more serious drought issues by summer.