Serving Boone, Blowing Rock, Banner Elk, and other towns of the North Carolina High Country
Founded 05-05-05
February 21, 2008 issue
Water Matters: Looking to the State and Federal Governments for Guidance
Story by Kathleen McFadden
Editor’s note: This article is the third in High Country Press’s look at the drought in North Carolina. Previous articles have focused on individual impacts and local measures. This week’s article looks at statewide initiatives and monitoring activities.
The State of North Carolina can’t make the rain fall, but the state has resources that local governments do not and can compile data—assisted by federal agencies—that provides a big-picture look at the conditions affecting the state and what we can anticipate in the coming months.
As the preceding articles in this series have emphasized, the drought is real, and conditions can become even more serious this spring and summer than they were last year. Watauga and Avery counties are still classified as being in exceptional drought conditions—the worst category. Exceptional drought means that the historic probability of such conditions occurring in any given year is less than 2 percent.
Exceptional Drought—It Really Is Bad
According to the State Climate Office, the current extreme to exceptional drought classifications are largely determined by the long-term lack of surface and groundwater. Stream flows in our area have been well below normal, and data at the U.S. Geologic Survey North Carolina DroughtWatch site shows that both the Watauga and the New—the two rivers the USGS measures—have been as low as 10 percent of normal.
This type of drought—long-term lack of surface and groundwater— is defined as a hydrologic drought. Surface and groundwater supplies take much longer to replenish, so hydrologic droughts last much longer and are slower to improve and end.
In contrast, agricultural conditions have improved to a small degree and are typically the first to respond as periodic rainfall soaks quickly into the topsoil. While rainfall has been below normal across the area this winter, available crop moisture is currently showing a small surplus because of less agricultural demand and less water lost to evaporation over the winter.
However, if dry weather continues over the next few months, expect a quick return of significant agricultural drought conditions.
Looking Back at 2007
Yearlong data compiled at the end of October 2007 showed that North Carolina was experiencing the worst drought conditions ever recorded going back as far as 1895 when drought indexes were first calculated and archived. In December, the State Climate Office of North Carolina reported that North Carolina had just ended the driest year recorded since widespread precipitation records began. Based on preliminary data from observing stations across the state, 2007 was the driest year in 118 years of data.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service Office in Raleigh, throughout 2007, most of North Carolina received only 50 to 75 percent of the normal rainfall expected in a year.
The Climate Office acknowledged slight improvement in drought conditions as a result of heavy rains during the last week of December that brought some relief to river and reservoir levels. While conditions are still classified as exceptional drought for much of western, central and eastern North Carolina, water systems that were moving into dire situations have had some short-term relief.
But the outlook for the next season is not encouraging, and indicators suggest the state is more likely to be dry than wet over the next three to four months.
Staff members at the State Climate Office continue to devote much of their attention to drought monitoring and public education of drought and water issues, pointing out the likelihood that water restrictions will continue through the summer.
Looking Forward in 2008
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service Office in Raleigh issued a weather assessment on Tuesday, February 12, and it isn’t good news.
According to the National Weather Service Office, North Carolina started 2008 with rainfall deficits ranging from 8 to 12 inches in the Piedmont and 20 to 24 inches in the mountains and southeastern North Carolina.
Because of low lake levels in some areas, even near-normal rainfall over the next three to six months will not bring an end to the current drought, and drought conditions are forecast to persist and even possibly worsen during the early summer months. If climate predictions are accurate and the rains of the winter and spring remain below normal, farms, cities and residences will face ongoing water shortages in the summer months.
Keep Track of the Drought
The State of North Carolina and federal agencies have posted websites with current data on water usage statewide, weather conditions and predictions, stream flows, drought advisories and water conservation tips.
NC Drought Monitor
www.ncdrought.org
Statewide Drought Summary
www.ncwater.org/Drought_Monitoring/
State Climate Office of North Carolina
www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/
National Weather Service in Raleigh
www.erh.noaa.gov/rah/
Climate Prediction Center
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
USGS North Carolina DroughtWatch
nc.water.usgs.gov/drought/
How Much Rain Do We Need?
According to the North Carolina Climate Office and based on the Palmer Drought Severity Index, to ameliorate the drought, much of the state needs 14 to 18 inches of rain from February through April, and 25 to 30 inches over the next six months. Ameliorating the drought conditions would not end the drought, but would reduce the exceptional drought conditions to moderate.
These needed rainfall values from the Climate Office are 5 to 7 inches above the normal rainfall expected during an average winter and spring.
In the winter—December through February—normal rainfall totals average 9 to 11 inches statewide. When combined with spring—December through March—normal rainfall totals reach 20 to 23 inches.
Based on climatology, the probability of receiving the 14 to 18 inches of rainfall necessary to ameliorate the drought from February to April is approximately 10 to 15 percent. The probability of ameliorating the drought in 6 months is less than 15 percent.
What’s the Palmer Drought Severity Index?
A man named Wayne Palmer developed the Palmer Drought Severity Index in the 1960s. The index uses temperature and rainfall information in a formula to determine dryness and has become the semi-official drought index.
The Palmer Index is most effective in determining long-term drought—a matter of several months—and is not as good with short-term forecasts that cover a matter of weeks. The index uses a 0 as normal, and drought conditions are expressed in terms of minus numbers. For example, minus 2 is moderate drought, minus 3 is severe drought, and minus 4 is extreme drought.
The advantage of the Palmer Index is that it is standardized to local climate, so it can be applied to any part of the country to demonstrate relative drought or rainfall conditions.
How Much Water Are We Using?
On October 22, 2007 Governor Mike Easley requested that all community water systems reduce water use consumption and start weekly water use reporting to the Department of Environment and Natural Resources.
DENR’s Division of Water Resources website—www.ncwater.org/Drought_Monitoring/reduction/weeklyreport.php—shows the weekly reports.
What’s the Governor Doing?
Request for Cutting Water Use: In August, Governor Mike Easley asked North Carolinians to reduce their water usage by 50 percent. Water usage dropped about 30 percent between August and the end of October, but by mid-December water use had crept back up.
Call for Action: On January 14, Easley told water system managers from the state’s 30 most vulnerable communities—Boone and Blowing Rock are among that 30—they need to take action now to make sure they will have adequate water supplies during the summer if North Carolina’s historic drought continues. Easley called on the communities to set up interconnections to other water supplies, conduct water audits and adopt conservation-based price structures to encourage citizens to conserve water.
The governor also announced that the Department of Environment and Natural Resources will send water audit experts into each of the 30 communities to make sure undue amounts of water are not being lost to leaks and other structural problems. DENR experts will conduct water audits, identify problems and recommend measures to improve the systems.
Easley said that although DENR has $8 million in low-interest loans available to help pay for emergency improvements, he's working with state legislators to ensure that more money becomes available in the future.
Request for More Power: On January 16, Easley said he wanted the General Assembly to give him and future governors additional powers to respond to droughts, such as the ability to issue water conservation measures when there's not an emergency.
Currently, the governor can either encourage conservation or invoke constitutional powers in drastic cases where the health and safety of North Carolina residents are threatened.
Call for Increased Prices: In December, Easley called on local water systems to enforce a fee system to penalize excessive water users with significantly greater water bills, and he repeated that request in January. Easley said the plan would keep prices low for necessary water use but "significantly" raise the price of water beyond that. Easley also said he wants the plan to remain permanent for long-term conservation.
Identification of Alternative Sources: On February 8, Easley said that state officials are working with the 11 most vulnerable communities to identify alternative water resources. Boone and Blowing Rock are among those 11 communities.
PSAs: Both the Governor and First Lady have produced public service announcements for television to promote water conservation.
What’s the General Assembly Doing?
House Speaker Joe Hackney and Senate President Pro Tem Marc Basnight established the Joint Select Committee on the Agricultural Drought Response. NC Senator Steve Goss and NC Representative Cullie Tarleton serve on the committee.
The members of the committee will lead the General Assembly’s response to the drought crisis and work with Governor Mike Easley and state agencies to lessen the damage the drought has already caused in the agribusiness sector.
The joint committee will propose specific drought response steps to the General Assembly in conjunction with the governor's office and the Department of Agriculture to assist the state’s farmers.
Online Decision Aide Offers Lawn Owners Irrigation Help During Drought
Another state response to the drought is the creation of the online Turf Irrigation Management System.
Through a cooperative effort between the Department of Crop Science and the State Climate Office of North Carolina at NC State University, a decision aide called the Turf Irrigation Management System (TIMS) is available online. Anyone—from the dedicated turf professional to the homeowner—can use the system to figure out how best to water lawns during the drought.
TIMS first asks users to set up an account by answering simple questions about grass type, soil and irrigation system. After setup, TIMS calculates the amount of irrigation you need and keeps track of when and how much water you actually use.
Once you enter your address, TIMS reads climate information from the closest weather station and calculates the irrigation your turf needs based on recent weather conditions, including precipitation and evaporation.
"Part of the goal of the turfgrass project is to help municipalities cut the amount of water that is wasted," said Dr. Ryan Boyles of the State Climate Office. "There's only so much water out there, and with the growing population and growing demands on fresh water during times of drought, this is a tool that if used effectively can really reduce how much water gets wasted for outdoor irrigation."
TIMS is free. Click to www.TurfFiles.ncsu.edu/TIMS.
Taking a Statewide Look at Water Allocation
Yet another statewide effort is focused on water allocation.
The UNC School of Government and Duke's Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions are helping the North Carolina General Assembly's Environmental Review Commission do a comprehensive study of water allocation, as called for in S.L. 2007-518.
The question under study is how water should be managed in North Carolina and elsewhere. The researchers, along with government officials, water users, consultants and other experts will draw information, including public input, from the Water Wiki website—sogweb.sog.unc.edu/Water/index.php/Main_Page—to analyze, debate and develop recommendations for policy changes.
The researchers encourage input at the site. You can write an article or simply add your thoughts to any of the discussion pages.