March 6, 2008 issue
Elon Polling Identifies Front Runners in Political Contests
Story by Kathleen McFadden
From February 18 to 21, pollsters at the Elon University Institute for Politics and Public Affairs surveyed 764 North Carolina residents to determine their top issues in the upcoming elections, as well as the candidates they favor in national and state contests.
The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percent and is weighted by gender. The sample is of the population in general and does not restrict respondents by their voter eligibility or their likelihood of voting in an election.
Top Issues
North Carolinians cited the economy as the most important issue facing the state and said it will strongly influence how they vote in the upcoming presidential, congressional and gubernatorial elections, according to the Elon poll.
Respondents listed the following as the most important issues facing the state:
• Economy: 29 percent
• Education: 12 percent
• Environment/Energy (including the drought): 10 percent
• Taxes: 7 percent
• Immigration: 7 percent
• Public Assistance/Medicaid or Medicare: 6 percent
The poll shows that some issues have more of an effect at the national level than the state level. For example, while 53 percent said the economy will influence their vote for governor, 70 percent said the economy will effect how they vote in the presidential election. Transportation and education have a larger impact on the vote for governor than for presidential choices.
Presidential Hopefuls
The poll found that in the upcoming May primary elections for North Carolina, Illinois Senator Barack Obama holds a double-digit lead over New York Senator Hilary Rodham Clinton:
• Barack Obama: 45 percent
• Hillary Clinton: 31 percent
• Too early to tell/don’t know: 22 percent
On the Republican ticket, Arizona Senator John McCain has more than double the support among North Carolinians than former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee. Respondents indicated little support for Representative Ron Paul, R-Texas.
• John McCain: 62 percent
• Mike Huckabee: 24 percent
• Ron Paul: 3 percent
• Too early to tell/don’t know: 10 percent
North Carolinians remain divided over which party to support in the 2008 presidential election, with 40 percent planning to support the Democratic Party and 35 percent indicating they will support the Republican Party. Twenty-one percent of citizens believe it is too early to tell or do not know which party they will support.
NC Senate Seat
A slight majority of North Carolina residents approve of how Republican Senator Elizabeth Dole is handling her job and are satisfied with her representation of North Carolina.
Fifty-one percent of respondents said they approve or strongly approve of Dole’s performance, but only 37 percent said they plan to support Dole’s reelection bid this fall:
• Plan to vote for Dole: 37 percent
• Plan to vote against Dole: 25 percent
• Too early to tell or don’t know: 37 percent
Of those citizens planning to vote against her, 81 percent have not decided which candidate they will support to oppose Dole.
Gubernatorial Hopefuls
Respondents were also split on which party to support in the North Carolina gubernatorial contest: 36 percent back the Democratic Party and 31 percent favor the Republican Party. Thirty-two percent said it is too early to tell or that they do not know which party to support.
Those who said they support the Democratic Party identified Bev Purdue as their top gubernatorial candidate:
• Beverly Perdue: 40 percent
• Richard Moore: 28 percent
• Too early to tell / don’t know: 32 percent
Those who said they support the Republican Party identified Pat McCrory as their top candidate:
• Pat McCrory: 28 percent
• Fred Smith: 12 percent
• Bill Graham: 10 percent
• Bob Orr: 6 percent
Too early to tell / don’t know: 44 percent
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