Serving Boone, Blowing Rock, Banner Elk, and other towns of the North Carolina High Country
Founded 05-05-05
May 1, 2008 issue
Elon University Poll Takes North Carolina’s Political Pulse
Story by Kathleen McFadden
The pollsters at Elon University worked the phones two weeks ago to take the current political pulse in North Carolina. The poll, conducted April 14 to 17, 2008, by the Elon University Institute for Politics and Public Affairs, surveyed 543 North Carolina residents and has a margin of error of 4.3 percent. The sample is of the population in general and does not restrict respondents by their voter eligibility or their likelihood of voting in an election.
Respondents answered questions about their principal issues in the primary election; questions about the impact of race, gender and age on their candidate preferences; and their picks for the gubernatorial and U.S. Senate races.
Issues in the Election
North Carolina residents identified the economy as the most important issue facing the state, and slightly more than half –51 percent—of respondents said the country has “gotten off on the wrong track.”
Respondents said the following issues are the most important facing the state:
• Economy: 35 percent, up six percentage points from February
• Gas Prices: 9 percent, up seven percentage points from February
• Elementary and Secondary Education: 9 percent, down three percentage points from February
Respondents identified the following three principal issues influencing their votes in the upcoming primary election:
• Economy: 88 percent
• Healthcare: 81 percent
• Iraq war: 80 percent
When asked to compare the major political parties, poll respondents indicated that Democrats are better equipped to handle most issues, including healthcare, education, the economy and the war in Iraq. The one policy area where Republicans were evaluated better than Democrats was immigration.
Yet there were stark contrasts across presidential candidates deemed best able to handle these issues. Republican Senator John McCain was named the top candidate overall to handle issues involving immigration, the Iraq war, family values and taxes.
Poll respondents named New York Senator Hillary Clinton the best presidential candidate overall to handle healthcare and education. Her rival for the Democratic nomination, Barack Obama, was not selected as best overall to handle any of these issues.
For the North Carolina gubernatorial election, respondents identified education and the economy as influential issues at 53 and 51 percent, respectively.
Forty-seven percent of respondents named the economy as the most influential issue in the U.S. Senate race.
Presidential Race
Most North Carolina residents will not allow race, gender and age to impact their vote in the upcoming presidential election, but more than half of respondents in the poll said they know someone whose decision will be tied to at least one of these characteristics.
With equal factors in place, 91 percent of those surveyed said that race does not make a difference in how they vote, 79 percent said that a candidate’s gender makes no difference and 66 percent said they do not factor age into their decisions.
However, when asked if they knew someone who would not vote for a candidate based on these attributes, the following responded in the affirmative:
• A presidential candidate who is a woman: 63 percent
• A presidential candidate who is black: 54 percent
• A presidential candidate who is “too old”: 44 percent
While race, gender and age reportedly have minimal effects on voting decisions, the top three qualities that citizens said have a lot of influence in their evaluation of political candidates are the following:
• Overall experience: 54 percent
• Exaggerated statements: 41 percent
• Personality: 31 percent
The presidential candidate most identified to be favorable or extremely favorable was Republican Senator John McCain with 52 percent, followed by Democratic Senators Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton with 49 and 44 percent, respectively.
Gubernatorial Race
On the state level, three gubernatorial candidates are ranked closely in approval ratings.
Democrats Beverly Perdue and Richard Moore were tied in terms of approval, with 31 percent of citizens saying they approved or strongly approved of the candidates. Republican Pat McCrory is close behind with a 29 percent approval rating.
Senate Race
Senator Elizabeth Dole received mixed evaluations in her bid for reelection.
Fifty-six percent of residents reported being satisfied or very satisfied with incumbent Sen. Elizabeth Dole’s representation of the state. Forty-seven percent of respondents identify her as favorable or extremely favorable, a sizeable lead over her potential Democratic opponents.
Kay Hagan received a 21 percent favorable rating, compared to Jim Neal’s 12 percent.
However, despite Dole’s lead in this area, nearly half of respondents—45 percent—said it is time for a new person to have a chance at the senatorial seat.